Pessimism about the outlook for stocks over the next six months rose slightly, to 20.9% from 19.3% last week, which had been a six-year low in bearishness. As a result, bullishness remained above the historical average for a seventh consecutive week.Įven last week, when bullishness stood at levels last seen in July 2023, and before this latest uptick, AAII said that "optimism is now unusually high." Optimism climbed to 52.9% of respondents in the latest week, up from 51.3% last week and an historical average of just 37.5%. That may raise red flags for contrarian investors who try and bet against the crowd rather than with it. Individual investors are the most bullish about the outlook for stocks over the next six months since April 2021, according to the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. Yale Hirsch, who originated the term, was the founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac. "As Yale Hirsch's now famous line states, 'If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall,'" Hirsch added. "Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 20, two nasty bear markets in 20 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016." "Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year," Hirsch wrote in a blog post. But the editor noted a failure of the Santa Claus Rally to materialize is historically a harbinger for poor stock performance. Since 1969, the S&P 500 on average has gained 1.3% during this period, according to the Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac. This year, the season commences Friday until Jan. Wall Street will see if a "Santa Claus Rally" - which refers to the gains typical of the final five trading days of the year, and the first two of the new year - will materialize this holiday season. small-cap stocks at -1.2% (vs -2.4%) and hedged international bonds at 0.0% (vs -0.1%). large cap stocks as the worst asset class with a likely real annual return of -2.6% (better than -3.0% expected last summer), followed by U.S. inflation-linked bonds at 2.0% (vs 0.9%), U.S. Emerging market stocks are now forecast to return 4.7% per year, up from 4.0% a few months ago, trailed by international smallcap stocks at 4.4% (up from 3.6% last summer), emerging market debt at 4.4% (vs 3.4%), international large cap stocks at 2.3% (vs 1.6%), U.S. The firm, founded by noted value manager Jeremy Grantham in 1977, sees emerging market value stocks returning 6.3% per annum after inflation in local currency over the next seven years, up from 6.0% last August. equity market return of 6.5% after inflation from now through 2030. The Nasdaq Composite surged more than 18% over the same period.Įmerging market stocks and bonds offer the greatest opportunity for capital appreciation and income over the next seven years, but they're the best of a bad bunch, according to Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo's latest forecasts of expected returns in major asset classes (excluding commodities).Īs has been true since the the summer, GMO sees no major asset class surpassing the long-term average annual U.S. "And so, I just think it was a technical correction after a very strong period of time."įrom their late October closing lows through Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 both jumped more than 15%. "The stock market went from up to down pretty fast," said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posted its worst day since September. On Wednesday, the Dow and Nasdaq registered their worst sessions since October, each snapping nine-day winning streaks. Wall Street is coming off a losing day when investors took profits after recent gains. Salesforce was among the leading advancers in the Dow, rising 2.7% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Chip stocks rose broadly, with Intel and Advanced Micro Devices rising 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Micron Technology was the best performer, jumping 8.6% after the memory chipmaker topped quarterly expectations, and offered current-quarter guidance that exceeded forecasts. The S&P 500 advance was broad-based with more than 450 names rising in the index. That places the broad market index about 1% from its closing high and 1.5% from its intraday record. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.26% to 14,963.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 322.35 points, or 0.87%, to 37,404.35. Stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 recovering from its worst day since September as the year-end rally resumed. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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